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VPRT German Advertising Market Forecast Spring 2018

17.05.2018

Audio and Audiovisual Media Record Advertising Revenue of 6 Billion Euros in Germany

• Revenue performance 2017-2018: growth and record revenues in all segments of audio and audiovisual media
• Trend forecast 2019-2023: good growth opportunities, but risks due to regulations hindering innovation and competition

Berlin, 17 May 2018 To coincide with today´s annual "Advertising Plenum" organised by the German Advertising Federation (ZAW), the Association of Commercial Broadcasters and Audiovisual Services in Germany (VPRT) is publishing its spring forecast on ongoing trends in the advertising market during 2018 for the radio, audio, TV and video ad-vertising sectors. For the first time, the Association is expecting audio and audio-visual media to capture a 40-percent share of the advertising market (2017: 38.4 percent), with revenue exceeding 6 billion euros (2017: 5.9 billion euros). This represents revenue growth of between 2.5 and 3.4 percent (2017:  2.4 percent).

Hans Demmel, Chairman of VPRT´s Managing Board said: "The growth recorded by our industry impressively underscores the economic significance of audiovisual media in Germany, their economic effects having a positive impact on numerous other industries. This encouraging performance could quickly be faced with a re-newed challenge due to the lack of a level playing field in Germany and Europe. In this regard, the audiovisual industry is dependent on adequate harmonisation of the regulations for all market players." 

According the VPRT forecast, net advertising revenue in the television sector will increase by 1.0 to 1.5 percent during 2018 (growth 2017: 0.7 percent) to around 4.7 billion euros (revenue 2017: 4.6 billion euros). The share of the advertising market attributable to television advertising is expected to reach around 31 percent in 2018 (2017: 30.0 percent). In the case of net advertising revenue generated by in-stream video advertising, the Association is predicting growth of between 15 and 20 percent for 2018 (2017: 21.2 percent) up to around 0.6 billion euros (2017: 0.5 billion euros). Total revenue from television and video advertising will increase by between 2.3 and 3.3 percent in 2018 (growth 2017: 2.3 percent) to reach a record figure of 5.2 billion euros, having exceeded the 5-billion-euro mark for the first time last year. In 2018, additional investment in television and video advertising is again expected to amount to around 150 million euros (2017: 115.4 million euros).  

Net advertising revenue in the radio sector is expected to rise by 2.5 to 3.0 percent in 2018 (growth 2017: 2.2 percent), topping 800 million euros for the first time (revenue 2017: 784 million euros). The VPRT forecast for 2018 anticipates a further increase in the share of the advertising market held by radio to over 5.3 percent (2017: 5.1 percent). Based on a comparatively low initial figure, the Association is forecasting a 30 to 40 percent rise in net advertising revenue in the in-stream au-dio advertising segment during 2018 (growth 2017: 38.1 percent) to between 38 and 41 million euros (revenue 2017: 29 million euros). Additional investment total-ling around 30 million euros (2017: 25 million euros) is expected in the radio and audio advertising sector, with revenue growing by 3.5 to 4.3 percent (growth 2017: 3.2 percent) to reach 845 million euros (2017: 813 million euros).

Frank Giersberg, Member of the VPRT Board of Directors said: "The current fore-cast documents the sustained growth potential generated by our industry. In the case of classic linear media usage, the trend towards a moderate increase in the al-ready high level of advertising value continues unabated, while we are seeing high growth momentum at a relatively low level in the case of new types of offerings."

In its trend forecast for the next five years up to 2023, VPRT anticipates a further rise in the demand for audio and audiovisual media content, as well as for advertis-ing opportunities.
Notably in the sector of non-linear and interactive forms of audio and audiovisual media offerings, VPRT is forecasting high innovative momentum and double-digit percentage growth in advertising revenue over the next five years. In the case of linear offerings, the Association expects the stable, positive trend to continue, ac-companied by moderate growth. At the same time, a very high level of competi-tive dynamics, along with ongoing fragmentation and increasing convergence in terms of offerings and advertising is anticipated over the next few years. The use of data-driven business models, such as programmatic or addressable advertising, is expected to gain even greater significance in the audio and audiovisual media sector, even though the impact of the General Data Protection Regulation and the ePrivacy Regulation on this market cannot yet be evaluated.

Today´s figures published by VPRT supplement Germany´s official advertising sta-tistics issued by the ZAW which are based, among other things, on the revenue reports compiled each year by VPRT. The VPRT spring forecast for the German ad-vertising market 2018 is based on surveys conducted among relevant companies and expert interviews. The advertising market shares quoted relate to the net ad-vertising revenue generated by assessable advertising media based on the ZAW advertising statistics.

 

 

Tables - VPRT Advertising Market Forecast for Germany 2018:

Current figures
Net advertising revenue generated by audio and audiovisual media in Germany
in EUR mill., changes compared with 2017 in % and in EUR mill.

 

2017
 

Change
in %

Change
in EUR mill.

2018e
 

Change
in %

Change
in EUR mill.

 

Television advertising

4,591

0.7

31

4,637 - 4,660

1.0 - 1.5

approx. 60

 

In-stream video advertising

480

21.2

84

552 - 576

15 - 20

approx. 85

 

TV & video advertising

5,071

2.3

115

5,189 - 5,236

2.3 - 3.3

approx. 145

 

Radio advertising

784

2.2

17

804 - 808

2.5 - 3.0

approx. 22

 

In-stream audio advertising

29

38.1

8

38 - 41

30 - 40

approx. 10

 

Audio advertising

813

3.2

25

842 - 849

3.5 - 4.3

approx. 32

 

Total A/AV

5,885

2.4

140

6,031 - 6,085

2.5 - 3.4

approx. 175

 

Source: VPRT Advertising Market Forecast for Germany (Spring 2018)

 

Previous years
Net advertising revenue generated by audio and audiovisual media in Germany
in EUR mill.

 

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

Television advertising

4,038

4,125

4,292

4,422

4,560

4,591

4,637 - 4,660

In-stream video advertising

N/A

200

250

320

396

480

552 - 576

TV & video advertising

4,038

4,325

4,542

4,742

4,956

5,071

5,189 - 5,236

Radio advertising

720

746

738

743

768

784

804 - 808

In-stream audio advertising

N/A

< 10

11

15

21

29

38 - 41

Audio advertising

720

> 750

749

758

789

813

842 - 849

Total A/AV

4,757

5,080

5,291

5,500

5,744

5,885

6,031 - 6,085

Source: VPRT Advertising Market Forecast for Germany (Spring 2018)

 

Advertising market shares held by audio and audiovisual media in Germany
in percent

 

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018e

Television advertising

26.0

26.9

28.0

29.1

29.7

30.0

approx. 31

Radio advertising

4.6

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

approx. 5.3

In-stream advertising

N/A

1.3

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.3

approx. 4

Total A/AV

30.7

33.1

34.5

36.2

37.4

38.4

approx. 40

Source: VPRT Advertising Market Forecast for Germany (Spring 2018)
(Basis: Advertising media acc. to ZAW)

 

Further VPRT Publications

VPRT monitors market developments in Germany´s audio and audiovisual media sector based on regular surveys and publications. This year, the Association has al-ready published the VPRT Media Use Analysis 2017 and, following this spring fore-cast for the advertising market in 2018, will be highlighting developments on the pay-TV market during the summer with its pay-TV statistics (July) and in the au-tumn, will be publishing its 2018 revenue forecast for all audiovisual media sectors (October).
Latest data on market trends

Queries to:
Frank Giersberg, Member of the Board of Directors, Market and Business
Development / Commercial Director
T | +49 30 3 98 80-100, E | giersberg@vprt.de
Press Spokesman Hartmut Schultz, Hartmut Schultz Kommunikation GmbH
T | +49 30 3 98 80-101, E | hs@schultz-kommunikation.com

About VPRT:
VPRT represents commercial broadcasting and audiovisual companies in Germany. With their TV, radio, online and mobile offerings, its approximately 150 members enhance Germany´s media landscape in terms of diversity, creativity and innova-tion. To ensure that things remain this way even in the digital world, the regulato-ry, technological and economic parameters must be right. As a trade association, we support our companies in their dialogue with politicians and market partners in order to achieve this goal – at both a national and EU level.
As from 21 May 2018, the Association will be operating under the name "VAUNET – German Media Association" as the new leading representative of audiovisual media enterprises in Germany.

Verband Privater Rundfunk und Telemedien e.V.
Stromstrasse 1, 10555 Berlin
Rue des Deux Eglises 26, B-1000 Bruxelles – Brussels Office
T | +49 30 3 98 80-0, F | +49 30 3 98 80-148
E | info@vprt.de  
www.vprt.de

Ansprechpartner

Frank Giersberg

Mitglied der Geschäftsleitung / Markt- und Geschäftsentwicklung, Kaufmännischer Leiter

Hartmut Schultz

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